A glimpse into WRC’s crystal ball: one favourite ahead of Kalle Rovanperä in Finland

In this new series, we look into the crystal ball. Or rather, we look at history and try to predict the future based on it.

The drivers’ chances of winning are scored based on their past performances in this rally, their results in the last five WRC rallies, and factors such as experience, equipment, and starting position.

The certainty of finishing considers both retirements and technical failures. Experience is measured by participation in the last five editions.

In the Rally Finland forecast, two drivers stand out from the rest: Hyundai’s Ott Tänak and Toyota’s Kalle Rovanperä. Rovanperä, seeking his first win in Finland, enters the race on a two-win streak, while Tänak is aiming for his fourth victory in Central Finland. A thrilling titanic battle for the legendary WRC rally victory is expected.

It’s time for the first predictions, as Jyväskylä is just around the corner!

Ott Tänak 97%

Ott Tänak has already won in Finland three times, and Hyundai’s speed in Poland and Latvia shows promise, provided no animals or advertising signs get in the way. Tänak starts third, so the starting position is unlikely to be a disadvantage.

Kalle Rovanperä 94%

Kalle Rovanperä is still missing a home victory, but he has been fast in his home rally. This year, the speed has been there, but two retirements lower the prediction. The starting position is good this year.

Thierry Neuville 89%

Thierry Neuville probably doesn’t need to complain much about starting first in Jyväskylä, as it’s not as much of a disadvantage as it is in Latvia, especially if the weather is rainy as it was last year. Last year, Neuville managed to find good speed on the Jyväskylä stages with Hyundai, thanks to Esapekka Lappi’s car developments.

Elfyn Evans 89%

Elfyn Evans has won in Jyväskylä twice, but this year his pace has been somewhat lacking. The starting position may offer a slight advantage. On the other hand, Evans has been consistent this year, finishing all five previous WRC rallies.

Sebastien Ogier 89%

Sebastien Ogier’s participation in Finland was a bit of a surprise, as he hasn’t driven fast gravel rallies in recent seasons. Even during his championship years, he avoided taking the biggest risks in Jyväskylä. Second place in Latvia showed he still has the speed, and his performances this season have been outstanding, with only first and second places. For the first time in a long while, Ogier starts from a good position in Finland!

Esapekka Lappi 80%

Esapekka Lappi won in Sweden in the winter and would surely like to continue similarly in his home rally. In Latvia, the pace was missing on the first day, but the right settings were found during Saturday. Lappi has finished only twice in the last five WRC rallies, so the risk of retirement is higher than for many others. Last year, Lappi also crashed out in Jyväskylä after complaining that his pace was not enough against Kalle Rovanperä.

Takamoto Katsuta 77%

Takamoto Katsuta’s results have been inconsistent. Sometimes the pace has been there, but sometimes the bushes have shaken. Last year, however, he managed a decent performance, finishing on the podium ahead of Teemu Suninen. He is also gaining a lot of experience.

Adrien Fourmaux 74%

Adrien Fourmaux has raised his level this year. Last year he finished second in WRC2 in Finland and third in Poland, so fast rallies do not scare the Frenchman. Based on Martins Sesks’ performances, M-Sport’s equipment is quite on par with Toyota and Hyundai.

Sami Pajari 74%

Sami Pajari starts his first WRC rally in the main class equipment. Miraculous feats like those of Martins Sesks cannot be expected, as Pajari does not have the same local knowledge advantage. However, Pajari has had a positive development curve in WRC2, and it was in Finland where he took his first win in this series.

Gregoire Munster 51%

There was hardly a need for numbers to tell how lost Gregoire Munster is behind the wheel of a Rally1 car. Sometimes even Rally2 cars are faster. He has little previous experience in this rally, and hasn’t shown much speed in smaller classes either.

How the success points were calculated:

The Rally Finland begins on Thursday, with a shakedown in the morning and the opening city stage in Harju in the evening.